When to Change Strategy and When to Be Patient
Changing too early wipes out your data, too late burns months. Criteria for deciding without going on instinct.
The two wrong directions are symmetrical: changing every three weeks because the numbers aren't rising, or persisting for a year with an approach that never gave a signal. Both come from not having set a criterion in advance.
Set the window before you start
Before the first post, declare how long you'll run without touching anything and which signal you'll treat as sufficient. Without that, every bad week becomes an occasion to change, and the data never matures.
Signals that call for a change
- Average retention falls across six consecutive posts, at constant format.
- Private conversations dry up while views hold.
- The audience that's growing doesn't resemble the audience that buys.
- Production takes longer than planned and quality is slipping.
Signals that call for patience
Low but slowly rising numbers, few interactions but from the right people, and occasional enquiries citing specific content. These are typical early-months conditions and they don't indicate a broken approach.
How to change
One variable at a time. Changing format, tone, frequency and topics together makes it impossible to know what worked, and forces you to start over at the next doubt.
Without a window declared in advance, every bad week looks like a good reason to change everything.
Sources and Further Reading
Official documentation and guidelines cited or useful for going deeper.